Top-Down Analysis Mastery: Professional Routine for High-Probability Risk

Strategy • Routine • Risk Management • Published

You might see a perfect "Buy" setup on the 5-minute chart, not realizing that the **Monthly trend** is crashing down. You are trying to swim up a waterfall.

**Top-Down Analysis** is the process of analyzing the market from the **Highest Timeframe (The Map)** down to the lowest timeframe (**The Entry**). This prevents impulsive emotional trades.

SVG 1: The Analysis Funnel (MTF Hierarchy)

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THE ANALYSIS FUNNEL MONTHLY / WEEKLY The Big Picture (Direction) DAILY / H4 The Structure (Key Levels) M15 / M5 (ENTRY) ALIGNMENT

1. The Law of Dominance and Risk Control

The **Higher Timeframe (HTF) ALWAYS dominates the Lower Timeframe (LTF)**. A "Double Top" pattern on the 1-Minute chart is meaningless if the Daily chart is in a strong Uptrend.

SVG 3: Law of Dominance (Hierarchy of Command)

THE HIERARCHY OF COMMAND (RISK RULE) Daily (General) - Direction H4 (Captain) - Strategy M15 (Soldier) - Entry RISK RULE: LTF MUST ALIGN WITH HTF. NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE GENERAL (DAILY).

2. The Professional Routine Checklist

To find high-probability trades, you must perform your analysis in a specific, repeatable order.

Workflow Breakdown:

  1. **Step 1 (HTF):** Check Weekly/Daily. Establish **Long-Term Bias** (UP or DOWN). Draw major Support & Resistance.
  2. **Step 2 (Medium):** Check H4/H1. Map the **Immediate Structure** and mark nearest **Daily Order Blocks (POIs)**. **Set Alerts.**
  3. **Step 3 (LTF):** **Only zoom in** when your H4 alert is triggered. Wait for a **CHOCH** (Change of Character) on M15/M5 to confirm the micro-trend shift and align with the Daily trend. **Execute.**

3. The Perfect Alignment (Sniper Entry)

This is where **risk** is minimized and **reward** is maximized.

SVG 2: The Perfect Alignment (Pullback Reversal)

THE PERFECT ALIGNMENT Daily: Bullish H4: Bearish (Pullback) M15: Bullish (Shift) ACTION: Buy the M15 Shift because HTF trend resumes.

4. Final Thoughts on Discipline

**Professional trading is boring.** Top-Down Analysis is repetitive, but it prevents the most common mistake: **impulsive emotional trades**.

If the timeframes do not agree, **you do not trade**. Respect the "Big Boys" on the Monthly/Daily charts, and use the lower timeframes only for timing your entry and **refining your risk**. Monitor the structural flow of the market via the Realtime Market Dashboard.


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Muhammad Raffasya
Written by Muhammad Raffasya — Retail Gold Trader

Sharing real experiences from XAUUSD trading to help beginners grow smart.

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Disclaimer: Educational purposes only — Not financial advice.